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๐Ÿ“Š DUNK PREDICTIONS

Thursday, May 21 ยท 6-feature Poisson model ยท statistical estimates only

โš  FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY

These are statistical estimates based on publicly available box-score data โ€” not predictions of future performance, not betting advice, and not guaranteed in any way. Do not use these numbers to place wagers. 21+. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How it works: Poisson model blends each player's season rate (shrunk toward a position baseline for small samples) with recent form (L3/L5/L10), home/away split, opponent dunk-rate-allowed (last 30 days), game pace, minutes, and rest. No future-game data is used.

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Expected dunk count (ฮป) and 1+/2+ probabilities.

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๐Ÿ€ TEAM DUNKS โ€” BY GAME

projected totals ยท over/under

SAS

away

6.3

proj dunks

5+ dunks: 75%

@

Game Total

12.5

O 11.5: 0%

OKC

home

6.2

proj dunks

5+ dunks: 74%

๐Ÿ‘ค PLAYER DUNKS

Victor Wembanyama11

2.6

exp

1+ dunks93%
2+ dunks74%

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Luke Kornet77
Luke Kornet

SAS @ OKC

1.7

exp

1+ dunks82%
2+ dunks51%

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Isaiah Hartenstein5555

1.7

exp

1+ dunks81%
2+ dunks49%

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Chet Holmgren77
Chet Holmgren

OKC vs SAS

1.2

exp

1+ dunks71%
2+ dunks35%

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Kelly Olynyk88
Kelly Olynyk

SAS @ OKC

1.2

exp

1+ dunks70%
2+ dunks34%

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Thomas Sorber1212
Thomas Sorber

OKC vs SAS

1.2

exp

1+ dunks69%
2+ dunks32%

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Jalen Williams88
Jalen Williams

OKC vs SAS

1.1

exp

1+ dunks68%
2+ dunks31%

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Stephon Castle55

1.0

exp

1+ dunks62%
2+ dunks25%

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Keldon Johnson33

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Carter Bryant1111
Carter Bryant

SAS @ OKC

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Bismack Biyombo1818

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Mason Plumlee4545
Mason Plumlee

SAS @ OKC

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Harrison Barnes4040

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Julian Champagnie3030

0.9

exp

1+ dunks57%
2+ dunks21%

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Kevin Durant77
Kevin Durant

OKC vs SAS

0.8

exp

1+ dunks56%
2+ dunks20%

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Luguentz Dort55
Luguentz Dort

OKC vs SAS

0.8

exp

1+ dunks56%
2+ dunks20%

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Jaylin Williams66
Jaylin Williams

OKC vs SAS

0.8

exp

1+ dunks56%
2+ dunks20%

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Branden Carlson1515
Branden Carlson

OKC vs SAS

0.8

exp

1+ dunks56%
2+ dunks20%

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Statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Dunk Ladder does not accept wagers and is not affiliated with any sportsbook. 21+. Problem gambling? 1-800-GAMBLER ยท Responsible Gambling ยท Terms